Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.290701 5.039173 5.867361 6.850003 7.982321 9.244366 10.755726
2025-08-31 3.032199 4.005045 5.199459 6.765876 8.757259 11.194808 14.393906
2025-09-07 2.392197 3.486136 4.950098 7.033595 9.900042 13.678924 19.006435
2025-09-14 1.894699 3.008697 4.615002 7.066667 10.672209 15.728808 23.291356
2025-09-21 1.540212 2.640564 4.335576 7.086069 11.371617 17.709286 27.675569
2025-09-28 1.275600 2.345415 4.095139 7.094993 12.015446 19.640239 32.168491
2025-10-05 1.183103 2.309689 4.248645 7.730899 13.693438 23.298655 39.662621
2025-10-12 1.044563 2.162339 4.183909 7.980894 14.755541 26.079344 46.042916
2025-10-19 0.929623 2.033964 4.126421 8.224209 15.819536 28.953483 52.844758
2025-10-26 0.808221 1.867607 3.968677 8.254228 16.495895 31.220424 58.819580
2025-11-02 0.677747 1.655384 3.685771 7.999583 16.605806 32.486586 63.144379
2025-11-09 0.557075 1.438799 3.356499 7.599638 16.377597 33.097700 66.320527
2025-11-16 0.476590 1.299903 3.172611 7.481538 16.710804 34.830188 71.831642
2025-11-23 0.411500 1.184313 3.021016 7.411133 17.135712 36.790936 77.993876
2025-11-30 0.379206 1.144689 3.035865 7.709844 18.371412 40.471670 87.861573
2025-12-07 0.335935 1.065988 2.943894 7.748510 19.044124 43.072633 95.802775
2025-12-14 0.297733 0.992401 2.851353 7.770571 19.679073 45.651653 103.928663
2025-12-21 0.264109 0.924075 2.759983 7.780618 20.284603 48.221286 112.259865
2025-12-28 0.262327 0.952459 2.929677 8.472856 22.576381 54.661392 129.393652
2026-01-04 0.243702 0.923298 2.937071 8.744892 23.884242 59.036433 142.400580
2026-01-11 0.226503 0.894810 2.941553 9.009578 25.203433 63.553622 156.093721
2026-01-18 0.203747 0.841714 2.865268 9.042234 25.940065 66.794896 167.184777
2026-01-25 0.175150 0.760145 2.688460 8.765246 25.842191 68.065748 173.870355